I’ve tried drawing parallels from the birth of the computer industry to what’s going on inside the mobile/cell industry. There aren’t many parallels.
The microcomputer industry was built on populism and platform competition. Ok, there’s one parallel. People like my friends and I build our own computers. We might even make or modify an operating system to go with them, because we were geeks and willing to learn things like assembly languages that made things tick.
There were early adopter civilians that did the job of learning obtuse user interfaces on early micros, hassling printers into submission, and generally becoming self-appointed wizards in a quest to make use of technology in a productive, profitable, and occasionally fun way.
Cell phones, on the other hand, started out as an analog of the landline telephone. At best, you could see the number you were dialing. A few small applications were added on. You couldn’t use them for data unless you were willing to pay mind-boggling prices, and wait for extremely slow data transfer rates.
Things changed. Computers picked up graphical user interfaces and microcomputers grew exponentially in raw computing power. Security stank, stunk, and stinks, but that’s another post. The graphical user interface (GUI) allowed programmers and hardware makers to allow their stuff to work together through common communications points. Several GUIs emerged, often modeled from research done long ago at Xerox’s Palo Alto Research Center (PARC).
Personal computers with power the size of huge mainframes emerged, and adaptations of personal computers started to permeate data centers across the planet. Today, the vast amount of corporate and government computing power rests on the advancements made from microprocessor technology and incumbent operating system advancements– with power programs that are fueled by these advancements.
In the palms of our hands, by contrast, phone technology evolved slowly until data communications entered the picture. A cat and mouse game of features versus data communications versus useful applications within the small form factor that mobile/cell phones represent, began.
Phone makers took it upon themselves to fund operating system and application development. Phones with a few smarts came onto the scene, starting with offering from RIM, Palm, and others. Ubiquitous mobile data helped improve demand for email apps. SMS, unavailable on some systems, became a competitive application. Basics were standardized, like alarm clock apps, rudimentary contact managers, and even web browsers. Several years later, the mosh of what’s possible across the world of cell/mobile phones has no standards, just customers that have become used to being brutalized.
Because carriers subsidize phone costs, they have controlled the development of phones, and often limit the features of the phone to increase their revenues. Those phone makers that attempt to control their platform have also thwarted applications development on their phones as well. This sort of chicanery flies in the face of the compatibility and open standards that the computer industry has come to accept as a hallmark of open technology and evolution.
That phone vendors try to convince consumers that their phones are HDTVs, fully functional replacements for personal computers, becomes a fantasy gap between reality and convincing consumers of the lies. There has been a successful bridge where consumers now use phones as entertainment devices, as well as short-message communicators. But you can’t change the size of tiny keyboards and displays into those of personal computers, and voice-to-text command of phones is at best, unreasonable– and for many reasons.
Does this mean that phone development will shelve? No. Consider the myriad applications that are evolving. But the platforms have become for the large part closed, in terms of hardware. It becomes necessary for software developers to increase functionality and find markets. In the meantime, the brutishness of carriers and phone platform vendors cripples the industry’s growth. A reality check is due.