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Thirty-two years ago, I arrived in Las Vegas for my first CES Show. Enough of the geezerism– this is a new world. The optimism here was cautious, and many people are well aware of the fact that the HD-buy peak period is about over. Add that to the down economy, and there are a few missing faces here. I know of at least two large organizations that pulled out as recently as a couple of weeks ago from the show.

That doesn’t mean that the show isn’t chock-a-block with vendors with seriously large stands. The entire showfloor at CES 2009 is just plainly jammed. The press conferences are packed like sardines (lacking the oil), despite the fact that there is a huge reshuffle going on in both print and online publishing– often downsizing or simple closings. There are a lot of unhappy press people walking around, looking for work. Some will survive. Others will move on.

That doesn’t mean that the three huge press events, CES Unveiled, Digital Experience/PEPCOM, and ShowStoppers weren’t also jammed with people– mostly ‘press’. But press doesn’t mean ink on paper any more at all. Indeed bloggers have official status and their own separate (if not smaller) dedicated CES/CEA areas to use. There are a few ‘press’ people that cross-over into the blogging realm. What’s changed is the fact that bloggers have enormous amounts of sudden dignity.

If there were initiatives that could be cited as new and fun, they’d be in the areas of personal technology, charging devices, and the advent of interesting media moshes. As CES was somewhat pre-empted by MacWorld, some of the announcements suffer the overpowering shadow of Apple, and the seeming demise of its leader, Steve Jobs. Jobs isn’t here at CES (as far as I know), yet he overshadows Steve Ballmer vastly. Jobs knows how to keep a secret and deliver, while Ballmer promised many things, including Windows 7, an update to Windows 2008 Server Editions, and the final delivery of Windows Live (which as too many people renaming it with evil phrases).

Automotive integration of varying kinds of electronics has become infinitely more sophisticated and numerous vendors displayed auto-kit. One vendor showed license plate frames with built-in cameras so that you won’t back up onto your dog, child, or that Lamborghini behind you.

Still others will have your car charge nearly anything. GPS devices abound. Some even have free subscriptions that’ll tell you about realtime traffic conditions and delays. The form factors are smaller and smaller, while the displays get better and better.

But there is no ‘iPod’, no huge competitor to the ‘iPhone’ (although the number and varieties of mobiles/cell phones seems increasingly infinite), and the only category that Apple doesn’t dominate is the latest netbook category— where no one makes any money, but we all have fun.

I’m going in the WayBack Machine to 1984, to COMDEX in Las Vegas. Along with me is a portable computer, housed in what appears to be a sewing machine case. It’s an Osborne I. It had 64K of memory, two 100Kbyte floppy disk drives, a 5″ monitor, and a reasonable keyboard. It ran CP/M, a precursor to MS-DOS, and WordStar (along with a few other things, like SuperCalc). I filed my first story from a convention on it. I had to carry it back with me, the story, because using modems was actually difficult then.

Fast forward a few years to the ‘clamshell’ Compaq that I bought. It was superfast, and used a 486 processor– with a match co-processor. The modem was actually built-in, a miracle at the time. Wireless hadn’t been invented, but I did have a genuine cell phone with me. I’m old.

Forward still to the year 2000, when we all though there’d be a catastrophe from the Y2K problem. I saw a Sony Vaio PCG-C1X machine that Linus Torvalds was using. I had to have one. It weight a scant three pounds, and had a 16×9 aspect ratio color screen, along with a built-in modem and a slot for an adapter card, like Ethernet, or it’s optional CD-ROM drive. It worked well, until the batteries soon failed. I still have that machine.

Forward to now, where it’s a MacBook Pro. There are other HP machines around, as well as a nice Fujitsu ultra-light. But I’m actually behind now. The new infant terrible is a netbook. It has to weigh in under four pounds, loaded. One friend of mine has an XO machine. It looks like a toy but it’s actually a lovely machine with great software. Another has an EEE and loves it. Still another friend swears by the new very tiny Lenovo.

Do I need another machine? Like a hole in the head. But there’s something else that I’ve become used to: a roller bag. Across the planet and to many venues, I’ve taken a roller bag filled with my gear. It used to be a backpack, but that gave me a sore shoulder. I needed something to roll around my gear while on the road. I’m longing for the backpack again, and the simplicity of connecting mostly by wireless, rather than a fixed position.

In other words, my laptop has become my desktop and I long for portability again. Macbook Air? you might suggest. My excuse: a minimum price of US$1799. Too high for the under $500 class that’s represented by the Netbooks. Will Apple, or even Nintendo make one? We can’t be sure, but these are companies that don’t ignore rapid market growth, even if profit margins can be brutally thin.

What are the important characteristics of a Netbook? All the usual desirables: nice screen, good keyboard, lack of flimsiness, software compatibility, battery life, and so on– the intuitive stuff. What will be the market outcome? Commodity computing, much like commodity mobile/cell phones.

Twenty+ years ago, I had a 3watt Uniden cell phone, a dual-NAM device that weight seven pounds. Yet with its massive antenna and huge battery, it was a tiny suitcase of a phone that was able to penetrate through where many phones could not. Yet it was like the Osborne I that I used: doomed. I think the current sense of laptops are destined for doom, as well, just as desktops are becoming curiosities in a mobile, connect-me-anytime-I-want world.

Here are a few pictures of the show floor from the Venetian in Las Vegas.

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